Logistic Regression Model Predicts Early Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients with Esophagogastric Varices

A logistic regression model predicted 28-day all-cause mortality in ICU patients with cirrhosis and esophagogastric varices with AUROC 0.882 (95% CI 0.795–0.924) in external validation, with the white cell-platelet ratio z-score as a strong determinant.

• Retrospective study developed and validated ML models using MIMIC-IV database (n=793) with external validation at a single center (n=100).
• LR model outperformed SVM, Naive Bayes, and Random Forest, achieving training AUROC 0.833 (0.793–0.873) and test AUROC 0.854 (0.795–0.913).
• Single-center external validation and retrospective design limit generalizability.

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